Statewide Reopening Metrics

After significant decreases in cases, deaths, and hospitalizations related to COVID-19, IDPH is monitoring key indicators to identify early but significant increases of virus transmission in Illinois, potentially signifying resurgence. These indicators are calculated for the entire state. IDPH will monitor if these indicators show an increase in the COVID-19 disease burden with a simultaneous decrease in hospital capacity. These indicators can be used to determine whether Illinois moves into the bridge phase and Phase 5 respectively.

Indicators are calculated daily for Illinois based on the most current, complete data. Each indicator is monitored for the trend over 28 days to evaluate the COVID-19 disease burden and hospital resource capacity. By applying the same metrics across Illinois, IDPH uses a standardized approach to monitor the state as a whole.

IDPH will continue to track the vaccinations rates and hospital capacity metrics, mortality, and case rates over 28-day monitoring periods to determine if the state can move into the bridge phase or Phase 5.

Illinois will move to the bridge phase when 70% of the population 65 years and older has received at least one dose of vaccine, and to Phase 5 when 50% of the population 16 years and older has received at least one dose of vaccine. In addition, when moving to both the bridge phase and Phase 5, hospital ICU bed availability needs to be higher than 20%, and new COVID-19 hospital admissions, total COVID-19 patients in the hospital, and death rates are not increasing significantly statewide over the most recent 28 days.

Illinois could move back to the bridge phase or Phase 4, if over 10 days the rate of new cases significantly increases and at least one of the following is true: hospital ICU availability is below 20%, there is a significant increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations, total COVID-19 patients in the hospital, or deaths. New evidence concerning variants, vaccine effectiveness, or waning immunity could substantially and quickly increase COVID-19 hospitalizations or deaths and will be taken into consideration, in addition to the metrics being monitored.

Data are provisional and are updated daily. Data Updated: ##/##/####

Percent of People 65+ Vaccinated

 

Percent of People 16+ Vaccinated

 

Average Available and Staffed ICU Beds

 

New Hospital Admissions for COVID-19-like-Illness

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COVID-19 Daily Mortality

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Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19

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COVID-19 Daily Cases

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Methodology

Vaccination Rate (First Dose)

Vaccine administrations are reported to the Illinois-Comprehensive Automated Immunization Registry Exchange (I-CARE). Administered vaccines are reported based on the date IDPH receives the vaccination record.

Calculation: [Total First Dose of Vaccine Administered in persons 65+] / [population 65+]
Population 65+ = 1,992,961

COVID-19-like-Illness (CLI) Admissions Trends

COVID-19-like-Illness (CLI) new hospital admissions are reported to the Illinois Syndromic Surveillance System. Visits are defined as CLI if the patient presents with a fever AND either cough, difficulty breathing or is given a diagnosis of COVID-19. Data is provisional, and a three-day lag after admission is used to allow time for IDPH to receive more complete data before analysis is performed.

Trend analysis uses a linear regression test for the most recent 28 days to detect any significant increases in hospital admissions. If new admissions are <150/day statewide, increasing trends will not be considered concerning.

Hospital Beds Occupied by a COVID-19 Patient

The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is reported daily by each hospital to IDPH EMResouces and represents the daily total number of hospital beds occupied by a suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patient.

Trend analysis uses a linear regression test for the most recent 28 days to detect any significant increases in hospital admissions. If total COVID-19 patients in hospital are <750/day, increasing trends will not be considered concerning.

Deaths per 100,000 people

Deaths of lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 are reported in the Illinois-National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (I-NEDSS) as the underlying cause of death or the contributing cause of death, confirmed either by investigations or record match with the Illinois Vital Records data.

Trend analysis uses a linear regression test for the most recent 28 days to detect any significant increases in hospital admissions. If the daily death rate is <0.1/100,000 population, increasing trends will not be considered concerning.

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Percent Availability

Intensive Care Unit (ICU) availability is reported daily by each hospital to IDPH EMResources and represents the number of ICU hospital beds that are empty.

Calculation: ICU availability = [Sum of ICU beds available for 7 days] / [Total ICU beds for 7 days] x 100

Target: At least 20% of ICU beds are available

New Cases per 100,000 people

COVID-19 cases are newly identified lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 that are reported in the Illinois-National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (I-NEDSS).

Trend analysis uses a linear regression test for the most recent 28 days to detect any significant increases in hospital admissions.